Planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is a tendency for people and organizations to underestimate how long they will need to complete a task, even when they have experience of similar tasks over-running. The term was first proposed in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahnemanand Amos Tversky. Since then the effect has been found for predictions of a wide variety of tasks, including tax form completion, school work, furniture assembly, computer programming and origami. In 2003, Lovallo and Kahneman proposed an expanded definition as the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions. According to this definition, the planning fallacy results in not only time overruns, but also cost overruns and benefit shortfalls. The bias only affects predictions about one's own tasks; when uninvolved observers predict task completion times, they show a pessimistic bias, overestimating the time taken

Planning fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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Baconian method

The Baconian method is the investigative method developed by Sir Francis Bacon . The method was put forward in Bacon's book Novum Organum (1620), or 'New Method', and was supposed to replace the methods put forward in Aristotle 's Organon . This method was influential upon the development of scientific method in modern science ; but also more generally in the early modern rejection of medieval Aristotelianism . Bacon's method is an example of the application of inductive reasoning . By reasoning using "induction", Bacon meant the ability to generalize a finding stepwise, based on accumulating data. He advised proceeding by this method, or in other words, by building a case from the ground up. He wrote in the Novum Organum that: "Our only hope, then is in genuine Induction... There is the same degree of licentiousness and error in forming Axioms, as in abstracting Notions: and that in the first principles, which depend in common induction. Stil...

To PC or NPC: That is the question

When it's time to gear up and get LARPing (live action role playing), you have a decision to make. Do you want to play as a PC (player character) or NPC (non-player character)? For most LARPers, there are several factors involved in making this decision. A PC generally gets to make his or her own choices and become a hero (or villain) on an adventure. An NPC is usually tied to plot and limited in such choices, although there are sometimes phenomenal combat and role play opportunities available to NPCs as well. To PC or NPC: That is the question - National LARP | Examiner.com

Fundamental attribution error

In social psychology, the fundamental attribution error (also known as correspondence bias or attribution effect) is people's tendency to place an undue emphasis on internal characteristics to explain someone else's behavior in a given situation, rather than thinking about external situational. It does not explain interpretations of one's own behavior—where situational factors are more easily recognized and can thus be taken into consideration. The flip side of this error is the actor–observer bias, in which people tend to overemphasize the role of a situation in their behaviors and underemphasize the role of their own personalities. As a simple example, consider a situation where Alice, a driver, is about to pass through an intersection. Her light turns green, and she begins to accelerate when another car drives through the red light and crosses in front of her. The fundamental attribution error may lead her to think that the driver of the other car was an unskilled or rec...

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality - Scientific facts

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