Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality - Scientific facts

Influence: Science and Practice ( ISBN 0-321-18895-0 ) is a Psychology book from 2003 examining the key ways people can be influenced by "Compliance Professionals". The book's author is Robert B. Cialdini , Professor of Psychology at Arizona State University. The key premise of the book is that, in a complex world where people are overloaded with more information than they can deal with, people fall back on a decision making approach based on generalizations. These generalizations develop because they allow people to usually act in a correct manner with a limited amount of thought and time. However, they can be exploited and effectively turned into weapons by those who know them to influence others to act certain ways. The findings in the book are backed up by numerous empirical studies conducted in the fields of Psychology , Marketing , Economics , Anthropology and Social Science . The author also worked undercover in many compliance fields such as car sales and

The planning fallacy is a tendency for people and organizations to underestimate how long they will need to complete a task, even when they have experience of similar tasks over-running. The term was first proposed in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky . Since then the effect has been found for predictions of a wide variety of tasks, including tax form completion, school work, furniture assembly, computer programming and origami . In 2003, Lovallo and Kahneman proposed an expanded definition as the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions. According to this definition, the planning fallacy results in not only time overruns, but also cost overruns and benefit shortfalls . The bias only affects predictions about one's own tasks; when uninvolved observers predict task completion times, they show a pessimistic bias, overestimating the time taken Planning fallacy - Wikipedi

The Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence was the name of a 1956 undertaking now considered the seminal event for artificial intelligence as a field. Organised by John McCarthy (then at Dartmouth College ) and formally proposed by McCarthy, Marvin Minsky , Nathaniel Rochester and Claude Shannon , the proposal is credited with introducing the term 'artificial intelligence'. The project lasted a month, and it was essentially an extended brainstorming session. The introduction states: “ We propose that a 2 month, 10 man study of artificial intelligence be carried out during the summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire . The study is to proceed on the basis of the conjecture that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it. An attempt will be made to find how to make machines use language, form abstractions and concepts, solve

In social psychology, the fundamental attribution error (also known as correspondence bias or attribution effect) is people's tendency to place an undue emphasis on internal characteristics to explain someone else's behavior in a given situation, rather than thinking about external situational. It does not explain interpretations of one's own behavior—where situational factors are more easily recognized and can thus be taken into consideration. The flip side of this error is the actor–observer bias, in which people tend to overemphasize the role of a situation in their behaviors and underemphasize the role of their own personalities. As a simple example, consider a situation where Alice, a driver, is about to pass through an intersection. Her light turns green, and she begins to accelerate when another car drives through the red light and crosses in front of her. The fundamental attribution error may lead her to think that the driver of the other car was an unskilled or rec

In Physics or engineering education , a Fermi problem, Fermi question, or Fermi estimate is an estimation problem designed to teach dimensional analysis , approximation , and the importance of clearly identifying one's assumptions. Named after physicist Enrico Fermi , such problems typically involve making justified guesses about quantities that seem impossible to compute given limited available information. Fermi problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sir Francis Bacon , 1st Viscount St. Alban,  Kt. , QC (22 January 1561 – 9 April 1626) was an English philosopher, statesman, scientist, jurist, orator, essayist, and author. He served both as Attorney General and Lord Chancellor of England. After his death, he remained extremely influential through his works, especially as philosophical advocate and practitioner of the scientific method during the scientific revolution . Bacon has been called the creator of empiricism . His works established and popularized inductive methodologies for scientific inquiry, often called the Baconian method , or simply the scientific method . His demand for a planned procedure of investigating all things natural marked a new turn in the rhetorical and theoretical framework for science, much of which still surrounds conceptions of proper methodology today. Bacon was knighted in 1603, and created Baron Verulam in 1618 and Viscount St. Alban in 1621; as he died without heirs, both peerages became

In economics and finance , arbitrage ( / ˈ ɑr b ɨ t r ɑː ʒ / ) is the practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more markets : striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices . When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For instance, an arbitrage is present when there is the opportunity to instantaneously buy low and sell high. In principle and in academic use, an arbitrage is risk-free; in common use, as in statistical arbitrage , it may refer to expected profit, though losses may occur, and in practice, there are always risks in arbitrage, some minor (such as fluctuation of prices decreasing profit margins), some major (such as devaluation of a currency o

Seigniorage ( / ˈ s eɪ n j ər ɪ dʒ / , also spelled seignorage or seigneurage) is the difference between the value of money and the cost to produce and distribute it. The term can be applied in the following ways: Seigniorage derived from specie—metal coins —is a tax , added to the total price of a coin (metal content and production costs), that a customer of the mint had to pay to the mint, and that was sent to the sovereign of the political area. Seigniorage derived from notes is more indirect, being the difference between interest earned on securities acquired in exchange for bank notes and the costs of producing and distributing those notes. Seigniorage is a convenient source of revenue for some governments. Seigniorage - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The bystander effect is a social psychological phenomenon that refers to cases in which individuals do not offer any means of help to a victim when other people are present. The probability of help is inversely related to the number of bystanders. In other words, the greater the number of bystanders, the less likely it is that any one of them will help. Several variables help to explain why the bystander effect occurs. These variables include: ambiguity, cohesiveness and diffusion of responsibility. Bystander effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Faster-than-light (also superluminal or FTL) communications and travel refer to the propagation of information or matter faster than the speed of light . Under the special theory of relativity , a particle (that has rest mass ) with subluminal velocity needs infinite energy to accelerate to the speed of light, although special relativity does not forbid the existence of particles that travel faster than light at all times ( tachyons ). On the other hand, what some physicists refer to as "apparent" or "effective" FTL depends on the hypothesis that unusually distorted regions of space time  might permit matter to reach distant locations in less time than light could in normal or undistorted space time. Although according to current theories matter is still required to travel subluminally with respect to the locally distorted spacetime region, apparent FTL is not excluded by general relativity . Examples of FTL proposals are the Alcubierre drive and the traversab

When it's time to gear up and get LARPing (live action role playing), you have a decision to make. Do you want to play as a PC (player character) or NPC (non-player character)? For most LARPers, there are several factors involved in making this decision. A PC generally gets to make his or her own choices and become a hero (or villain) on an adventure. An NPC is usually tied to plot and limited in such choices, although there are sometimes phenomenal combat and role play opportunities available to NPCs as well. To PC or NPC: That is the question - National LARP | Examiner.com

The Baconian method is the investigative method developed by Sir Francis Bacon . The method was put forward in Bacon's book Novum Organum (1620), or 'New Method', and was supposed to replace the methods put forward in Aristotle 's Organon . This method was influential upon the development of scientific method in modern science ; but also more generally in the early modern rejection of medieval Aristotelianism . Bacon's method is an example of the application of inductive reasoning . By reasoning using "induction", Bacon meant the ability to generalize a finding stepwise, based on accumulating data. He advised proceeding by this method, or in other words, by building a case from the ground up. He wrote in the Novum Organum that: "Our only hope, then is in genuine Induction... There is the same degree of licentiousness and error in forming Axioms, as in abstracting Notions: and that in the first principles, which depend in common induction. Stil

Just wanted to post this one here, so that I remember to try it with someone next time!! "This is a game based on a famous experiment called the 2-4-6 task, and this is how it works. I have a rule - known to me, but not to you - which fits some triplets of three numbers, but not others. 2-4-6 is one example of a triplet which fits the rule. In fact... let me write down the rule, just so you know it's a fixed rule, and fold it up and give it to you. Please don't look, since I infer from earlier that you can read upside-down." The boy said "paper" and "mechanical pencil" to his pouch, and she shut her eyes tightly while he wrote. "There," said the boy, and he was holding a tightly folded piece of paper. "Put this in your pocket," and she did. "Now the way this game works," said the boy, "is that you give me a triplet of three numbers, and I'll tell you 'Yes' if the three numbers are an instance of

Consequentialism is the class of normative ethical theories holding that the consequences of one's conduct are the ultimate basis for any judgement about the rightness of that conduct. Thus, from a consequentialist standpoint, a morally right act (or omission from acting) is one that will produce a good outcome, or consequence. The idea of consequentialism is commonly encapsulated in the English saying , "the ends justify the means". Consequentialism is usually distinguished from deontological ethics (or deontology), in that deontology derives the rightness or wrongness of one's conduct from the character of the behaviour itself rather than the outcomes of the conduct. It is also distinguished from virtue ethics , which focuses on the character of the agent rather than on the nature or consequences of the act (or omission) itself, and pragmatic ethics which treats morality like science: advancing socially over the course of many lifetimes, such that any moral cri

Bayesian decision theory refers to a decision theory which is informed by Bayesian probability . It is a statistical system that tries to quantify the tradeoff between various decisions, making use of probabilities and costs. An agent operating under such a decision theory uses the concepts of Bayesian statistics to estimate the expected value of its actions, and update its expectations based on new information. These agents can and are usually referred to as estimators. From the perspective of Bayesian decision theory, any kind of probability distribution - such as the distribution for tomorrow's weather - represents a prior  distribution. That is, it represents how we expect today the weather is going to be tomorrow. This contrasts with frequentist inference, the classical probability interpretation, where conclusions about an experiment are drawn from a set of repetitions of such experience, each producing statistically independent results. For a frequentist, a probability fu

Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials. An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating "With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome", whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating "Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times." The difference is more apparent when discussing ideas. A frequentist will not assign probability to an idea; either it is true or false and it cannot be true 6 times out of 10. Bayesian probability - Lesswrongwiki

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well.  Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases - Google Books

Language in Thought and Action is a book on semantics by Samuel Ichiye Hayakawa , based on his previous workLanguage in Action published in 1939. Early editions were written in consultation with different people. The current 5th edition was published in 1991. It was updated by Hayakawa's son, Alan R. Hayakawa and has an introduction by Robert MacNeil . Its Library of Congress control number is 92033105. The book has sold over one million copies and has been translated into eight languages. “ Insight into human symbolic behavior and into human interaction through symbolic mechanisms comes from all sorts of disciplines: not only from linguistics, philosophy, psychology, and cultural anthropology, but from attitude research and public opinion study, from new techniques in psychotherapy, from physiology and neurology, from mathematical biology and cybernetics . How are all these separate insights to be brought together? ...I have examined the problem long enough to believe tha

In Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, renowned authors Hastie and Dawes compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. They describe theories and research finding from the field of judgement and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making by Reid Hastie — Goodreads.com

Gödel, Escher, Bach : An Eternal Golden Braid (pronounced [ˈɡøːdəl ˈɛʃɐ ˈbax] ), also known as GEB, is a 1979 book by Douglas Hofstadter , described by his publishing company as "a metaphorical fugue on minds and machines in the spirit of Lewis Carroll ". By exploring common themes in the lives and works of logician Kurt Gödel , artist M. C. Escher and composer Johann Sebastian Bach , GEB expounds concepts fundamental to mathematics , symmetry , and intelligence. Through illustration and analysis, the book discusses how self-reference and formal rules allow systems to acquire meaning despite being made of "meaningless" elements. It also discusses what it means to communicate, how knowledge can be represented and stored, the methods and limitations of symbolic representation, and even the fundamental notion of "meaning" itself. In response to confusion over the book's theme, Hofstadter has emphasized that GEB is not about mathematics, art, and musi

Essays on Technology, Civilization, and saving the world by Galaxy Science Fiction Science Editor Jerry Pournelle, PhD. Preface by Larry Niven, and Foreword by A. E. Van Vogt. From the Niven Preface: "Jerry Pournelle is our to make the whole world rich... He's been building the future since I was in grade school, and he's still at it." Essays include "Survival With Style" and "That Buck Rogers Stuff," as well as excerpts from The Strategy of Technology. From the Preface to the 2011 Edition: “We live in an age of marvels. Despite that, we feel a sense of impending doom.... That's still true... We could still go to space. We could still mine the asteroids. We could still take part in developing mankind’s vast future. Indeed, it is easier to do now than it would have been when I wrote these essays. The unrelenting enmity of the Soviet Union has been replaced by other threats, some of them severe, but none comparable to 26,000 nuclear warheads.

Homo erectus (meaning "upright man," from the Latin ērigere, "to put up, set upright") is an extinct species of hominin that lived throughout most of the Pleistocene , with the earliest first fossil evidence dating to around 1.8 million years ago and the most recent to around 143,000 years ago. The species originated in Africa and spread as far as Georgia , India , Sri Lanka , China and Java . Homo erectus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Dirdir is the third science fiction adventure novel in the tetralogy Tschai, Planet of Adventure .  Written by Jack Vance , it tells of the efforts of the sole survivor of the destruction of a human starship to return to Earth from the distant planet Tschai. The Dirdir - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In astrophysics and cosmology , the anthropic principle (from Greek anthropos, meaning "human") is the philosophical consideration that observations of the physical Universe must be compatible with the conscious life that observes it. Some proponents of the anthropic principle reason that it explains why the Universe has the age and the fundamental physical constants necessary to accommodate conscious life. As a result, they believe it is unremarkable that the universe's fundamental constants happen to fall within the narrow range thought to be compatible with life . The strong anthropic principle (SAP) as explained by Barrow and Tipler (see variants ) states that this is all the case because the Universe is compelled, in some sense, for conscious life to eventually emerge. Critics of the SAP argue in favor of a weak anthropic principle (WAP) similar to the one defined by Brandon Carter , which states that the universe's ostensible fine tuning is the res

Simulacron-3 (1964) (also published as Counterfeit World), by Daniel F. Galouye , is an American science fiction novel featuring an early literary description of virtual reality . Simulacron 3 is the story of a virtual city (total environment simulator) for marketing research , developed by a scientist to reduce the need for opinion polls . The computer-generated city simulation is so well-programmed, that, although the inhabitants have their own consciousness , they are unaware, except for one, that they are only electronic impulses in a computer. The simulator’s lead scientist, Hannon Fuller, dies mysteriously, and a co-worker, Morton Lynch, vanishes. The protagonist, Douglas Hall, is with Lynch when he vanishes, and Hall subsequently struggles to suppress his inchoate madness. As time and events unwind, he progressively grasps that his own world is probably not “real” and might be only a computer-generated simulation. Symbolically, the title term "Simulacron-3" refers

xkcd: Quantum Mechanics In quantum mechanics , the Hamiltonian is the operator corresponding to the total energy of the system. It is usually denoted by H, also Ȟ or Ĥ. Its spectrum is the set of possible outcomes when one measures the total energy of a system. Because of its close relation to the time-evolution of a system, it is of fundamental importance in most formulations of quantum theory. The Hamiltonian is the sum of the kinetic energies of all the particles, plus the potential energy of the particles associated with the system. For different situations or number of particles, the Hamiltonian is different since it includes the sum of kinetic energies of the particles, and the potential energy function corresponding to the situation. Hamiltonian (quantum mechanics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  HPMOR - Chapter 2

In quantum physics , unitarity is a restriction on the allowed evolution of quantum systems that ensures the sum of probabilities of all possible outcomes of any event is always 1. More precisely, the operator which describes the progress of a physical system in time must be a unitary operator . When the Hamiltonian is time-independent the unitary operator is . Unitarity (physics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  Chapter 2

The Feynman Lectures on Physics  is a 1964  physics   textbook  by  Richard P. Feynman ,  Robert B. Leighton  and Matthew Sands , based upon the lectures given by Feynman to  undergraduate students  at the  California Institute of Technology  (Caltech) in 1961–1963. It includes lectures on  mathematics ,  electromagnetism ,  Newtonian physics , quantum physics , and the relation of physics to other sciences. Six readily accessible chapters were later compiled into a book entitled  Six Easy Pieces: Essentials of Physics Explained by Its Most Brilliant Teacher , and six more in Six Not So Easy Pieces: Einstein's Relativity, Symmetry and Space-Time . The first volume focuses on  mechanics ,  radiation , and  heat . The second volume is mainly on  electromagnetism and  matter . The third volume, on  quantum mechanics , shows, for example, how the  double-slit experiment  contains the essential features of quantum mechanics. The Feynman Lectures on Physics - Wikipedia, the